Global Market Highlights
- Global equity markets remained mixed to cautious on July 30–31, with investors digesting strong U.S. corporate earnings alongside geopolitical and trade uncertainty.
- Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose over 1% following strong earnings reports from Meta and Microsoft, driven by mounting momentum from AI and cloud computing growth.
- S&P Global Inc. stock hit an all‑time high of $545.90, reflecting investor enthusiasm about its outlook.
- The U.S. dollar continued its strength, though slightly cooled as the Bank of Japan lifted its inflation and GDP outlook, making global FX dynamics choppy.
Indian Market Highlights
Market Performance & Drivers
- On July 31, Indian equities opened sharply lower as President Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian imports effective August 1, along with unspecified punitive actions tied to continued purchases of Russian oil and defense equipment.
- The Sensex dropped by about 296–300 points, and the Nifty50 fell below 24,800, marking the first monthly decline in four months amid rising trade tensions.
- Early losses were steep—with an estimated ₹5 lakh crore wiped off investor wealth—but markets partially recovered as investors interpreted the tariff announcements more as political leverage rather than irreversible policy shifts.
Broader Market Context
- Indian equities have already experienced significant FPI selling—estimated in the range of ₹3 lakh to over ₹5 lakh crore since late 2024—with limited offsetting buying from domestic institutional investors.
- Earlier in 2025, global markets underwent a steep crash in early April driven by sweeping U.S. tariffs, which caused a sharp sell-off in global equities—though markets regained momentum by mid-year, with major indices hitting all-time highs by late June and July.
Intraday / Early Trading Levels
- At market open on July 31, the Nifty 50 dropped about 0.61% to ~ 24,703.1 points by 9:46 a.m. IST
- Earlier in the session, it was seen around 24,699.1—a decline of 0.66% from the previous close.
Closing Value on July 31
- By market close, Nifty 50 had trimmed losses and settled below 24,800, down around 0.5% on the day.
Recent Trend
- On July 30, the index closed above 24,850, boosted by strong performance in stocks like Larsen & Toubro and overall bullish sentiment in infrastructure and financials.
- Broad selling pressure re-emerged as FIIs offloaded nearly ₹25,000 crore over eight trading sessions in late July, contributing to the downward momentum
Levels Summary
- Open Today = 24,699 - 24,703.
- Close Today = Below 24,800 (Around 24,700).
- Previous Close (July 30) = Above 24, 850.
What’s Driving These Moves ?
- The key catalyst was U.S. President Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting August 1 and an unspecified penalty tied to energy and defense procurement from Russia. This fueled investor anxiety, especially around sectors like textiles, pharma, and auto components. Markets initially sold off but later stabilized somewhat as traders viewed the policy as more political posturing than final law.
- Strong earnings and support from heavyweight stocks (e.g., Larsen & Toubro, Sun Pharma) helped limit further falls even as sentiment turned cautious.
- The sustained FII sell-off in late July has stoked fears of further weakness into August, historically a weak month for Indian equities—analysts warn of more downside risk unless clearer trade and macro policy signals emerge soon.
Key Technical Levels for Nifty 50
Support & Resistance Zones :
- Immediate support around 24,700–24,800, with deeper support near 24,650 / 24,550 based on recent Fibonacci retracement and daily SMA levels.
- Resistance remains firm in the 25,000–25,170 band, with strong hurdles around 25,070, and further upside capped near 25,200–25,300.
- Broader consolidation continues between 24,500 and 25,150.
Technical Indicators
- RSI sits around mid‑50s, indicating neutral momentum with some downtrend signs.
- MACD remains bearish or neutral, with no strong trend confirmation.
- Bollinger Bands have narrowed as volatility declines, suggesting range‑bound movement unless decisive price action follows.
Summary Table
| Time Horizon | Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Near-Term/Intraday | 24,700–24,800 | 25,000–25,070 | Key consolidation zone; breakout watch |
| Short Term | 24,550 / 24,650 | 25,070–25,200 | A close above 25,070 may test higher zone |
| Intermediate | ~24,500 | 25,150–25,300 | Axis for potential breakout or renewed range |
Sector Play & Market Drivers
- Financials, especially banking stocks, have shown relative strength and are seen as potential outperformers amid cautious macro sentiment.
- FMCG continues to hold up as a defensive sector, with modest gains showing investor preference in volatile markets.
- IT, defense, and pharma stocks have lagged recently due to weak earnings and tariff concerns, particularly impacting export-heavy names.
Macro & Trade Risk Overview
- The Nifty has stayed confined within a narrow 440‑point trading range between ~25,246 and ~24,806, reflecting consolidation amid trade uncertainty.
- U.S. tariff threats and stalled India‑U.S. trade talks have weighed on sentiment, driving volatility and foreign outflows—roughly ₹600+ billion has been pulled by FIIs recently.
- India’s export‑sensitive manufacturing and textiles sectors are seen as most vulnerable to impending tariff regimes.
Outlook & Trading Ideas
- Bullish scenario: A breakout above 25,070–25,150 could open bullish momentum toward 25,200–25,300+ levels.
- Bearish scenario: A break below 24,700 support may test levels around 24,550–24,500, with further downside risk if clarity on trade dissipates.
- Neutral/range-bound strategy: Traders may look at buying dips near 24,700–24,800, and consider short positioning near 25,000–25,070, while monitoring global cues and macro triggers.
Current Technical Range & Direction
- Trading Band: Nifty has been oscillating between 24,800–25,250, reflecting a consolidation range with no sustainable breakout since July 2025.
Critical Support Levels:
- 24,900–24,930: A close below this would likely trigger a deeper pullback toward 24,650–24,550.
- 24,650–24,800: Identified as the key “last line of defence” for bulls.
Resistance Zones:
- 25,100–25,150: Immediate hurdle; breaking above this may pave the way for further gains.
- Broader resistance between 25,200 and 25,500, with the zone of 25,300–25,600+ serving as a stronger ceiling in the near term.
Tactical Suggestions (Non-financial advice)
- Dip buys near 24,900–24,650, with upside target set around 25,150–25,200.
- Initiate short positions near 25,100–25,200 (with tight stops) aiming for near-term weakness back to support zones.
- Keep a watchlist of sectors: Defensive names here may offer relative stability amid turbulence.
- Monitor triggers: U.S.-India trade talks (mid-August), RBI policy cues, global Fed signals, and subsequent quarterly results.
Suggestion :
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About The Company
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Services:
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Offer Date: Jul 30, 2025 - Aug 1, 2025
Exp. Premium: 38-40 (25.33%)
₹ 15000 /100 Shares
Sri Lotus Developers And Realty IPO Details
- Sri Lotus Developers And Realty IPO is a book-built issue of ₹792 crores, The total issue size is ₹792 crores. The IPO of Sri Lotus Developers And Realty is priced at ₹140-150 per equity share, which has a face value of ₹1 Per Equity Share each, IPO bidding starts from Jul 30, 2025 and ends on Aug 1, 2025. The allotment for Sri Lotus Developers And Realty IPO will be finalized on Aug 4, 2025. Sri Lotus Developers And Realty IPO will be listed on BSE, NSE, with a tentative listing date fixed as Aug 6, 2025. The company shall list its equity shares on the BSE, NSE. Kfin Technologies Limited is the registrar of the issue.
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- The total issue ₹792 crore, comprising a fresh issue of 5,28,00,000 shares ₹792 crore and
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